The Active Opinion

Ben's opinions. Check them out.

Tag: Conservatives

Looking back at the outcome of the 2019 Election

By

On February 18, 2020

In Politics and Economics, United Kingdom

 

We are slightly tired of British elections, aren’t we?

The UK just went through its third election in a short space of five years.

Electoral fatigue? Definitely.

Necessary? Absolutely.

“Dither and delay”. My new favourite phrase.

This being from Parliament on the topic of Brexit. And the leadership struggle within the Conservative party.

Despite the three elections, Conservatives beat Labour and now have a chance to “GET BREXIT DONE”.

Labour is currently going through a peculiar transition stage. As of January 2020, debates have focused on whether they should adopt a more centrist approach, on all topics. The identity crisis that the Left has, has not helped them for the past few years.

I will be discussing the economic interests of both parties and state whether they can last long term.

 

boris

Boris speaking to an audience during election campaign in Uttoxeter
Source: https://www.vox.com/world/2019/12/12/20999535/boris-johnson-uk-election-results-brexit

 

Boris gets his mandate

Mr. Johnson is in No.10. It’s definitely safe to say he’s in a good position to get objectives achieved on his agenda.

Traditionally, the Conservatives are the party for lower taxes, private ownership, and increased defence spending.

The reason that this election took place was due to Brexit, yes. They needed a mandate after the in-out referendum.

However, is one of the reasons the performance of the British economy?

Since 2010, the Conservatives have managed to have steady economic growth. One factor for the Conservatives remaining in government for so long is because of Labour’s past performance during the Blair government. Blair inherited some Thatcherite ideas pertaining to the economy. He called it the “Third Way”, in which there was favour for privatisation, free market policies and increased defence spending.

While Brexit has been the topic of discussion, could it be argued that Jeremy Corbyn’s policies are a bit outdated for this current generation?

According to Nabarro and Schulz from the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS), they state that if there was no deal Brexit, there would be fiscal loosening of 2%. However, there will be growth, albeit slow, over the next 3 years.[1]

The graph below shows that there is potential for economic growth in post-Brexit Britain.[2]

 

under brexit

 

Corbyn and Old Labour – An inseparable bond

Jeremy Corbyn’s policies are very popular in the UK. This is notable among high school and university students as well as working class people.

Corbyn is synonymous with Old Labour. The two go hand in hand.

Unfortunately, the policies made by his party were seen to be “unreasonable” and “unrealistic”.

According to the Labour Party manifesto, there was a desire to raise the income tax on those earning more than £80,000. [3] While the proposal could be seen as a desire for a fair distribution of wealth, the super-rich did not see this as an appealing reason to vote for Labour. For example, John Caudwell, the founder for Phones4U, stated that he would potentially leave the UK if there was to be a Labour government. [4]

Labour’s stance on the economy is completely understandable. The Tories who have been in power since 2010 have introduced austerity measures which have not been popular among many people across both political parties. The measures have allowed a higher growth in wages over the past few years. [5] The graph below from the Office of National Statistics shows the steady increase of wages since 2014, against fluctuating inflation.[6] Perhaps, people who have seen their wages increase were not in favour of a political party that wanted to tax income.

The narrative that “you work hard, and you get your reward” will have been used by the Conservatives as a justification for their policy implementation.

 

wage

 

Despite wage growth, the austerity measures have not been met with positive reception and have been met with fierce scorn from many Britons. According to Resolution Foundation, a think-tank, government spending fell from £334 billion to £302 billion from 2011-2018, which is a 10% fall. [7]

People who voted for the Tories have not hidden their displeasure. The poll below conducted two years ago, shows dissatisfaction with austerity measures and why Labour have run on the platform of nationalisation of public services and a higher income tax.[8]

questionnaire

 

Where next for Labour

Heffernan describes the similarities between Thatcherism and New Labour policies. He describes the economic success from Mrs Thatcher’s premiership, which Tony Blair and his chancellor Gordon Brown attempted to do, namely market driven economic growth to help with public service investment. [9]

Labour were in debt due to heavy defence spending, particularly from the War in Afghanistan and more significantly the War in Iraq. This approach has tainted Blair’s legacy. There’s no doubting that. However, should people in the Labour party be slightly more open-minded in shifting their views slightly more to the centre? Unfortunately, the mention of “Blairism” or “Blairite” is one met with disdain; however, it should be noted that Labour enjoyed their best spell in government since the 1970s.

There is an appetite for socialism in the UK. Labour must play their cards right and elect a leader that appeals to not just those in higher education, but the middle class too.

 

 

 

 

 

[1] Nabarro, Benjamin, and Christian Schulz. 2019. “UK Economic Outlook in Four Brexit Scenarios.” IFS. The IFS. October 8, 2019. https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14421.

[2] Nabarro, Benjamin, and Christian Schulz. 2019. “UK Economic Outlook in Four Brexit Scenarios.” IFS. The IFS. October 8, 2019. https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14421.

[3] “Rebuild Our Public Services.” n.d. The Labour Party. Accessed January 28, 2020. https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/rebuild-our-public-services/.

[4] Neate, Rupert. 2019. “Super-Rich Prepare to Leave UK ‘within Minutes’ If Labour Wins Election.” The Guardian. Guardian News and Media. November 2, 2019. https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/nov/02/super-rich-leave-uk-labour-election-win-jeremy-corbyn-wealth-taxes.

[5] “UK Wage Growth Picks up to 11-Year High.” 2019. BBC News. BBC. August 13, 2019. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49328855.

[6] “UK Wage Growth Picks up to 11-Year High.” 2019. BBC News. BBC. August 13, 2019. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49328855.

[7] Inman, Phillip. 2019. “Has the Age of Austerity Really Come to an End?” The Guardian. Guardian News and Media. September 5, 2019. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/05/has-the-age-of-austerity-really-come-to-an-end-sajid-javid.

[8] Singh, Matt. 2018. “Poll Shows Even Tory Voters Feel Austerity Has Gone Too Far.” Subscribe to Read | Financial Times. Financial Times. May 2, 2018. https://www.ft.com/content/c8d95118-4a42-11e8-8c77-ff51caedcde6.

[9] Heffernan, Richard. “Labour’s new labour legacy: Politics after Blair and Brown.” Political Studies Review 9, no. 2 (2011): 163-177.

The Snap Election – What next?

By

On July 4, 2017

In Politics, Politics and Economics, United Kingdom

On the 8th May, the UK had another general election.  We saw the Conservatives emerge victorious, albeit with the result they were not looking for – losing their majority, with Labour taking many traditionally Conservative strongholds.

The result was another shock to many British people, with many claiming that this result shows just how unpredictable politics can be. Only two polls successfully predicted the outcome of the election.

Some have called for Theresa May to resign due to this result, saying that she ran an uninspiring campaign, showed arrogance by not turning up to the televised debates and for not reaching out to young voters.

Who could replace May?

Jacob Rees-Mogg?

Image result for jacob rees mogg question time

Jacob Rees-Mogg alongside David Dimbleby on an episode of Question Time. Is he ready to be leader of the Conservatives? Credit: BBC NEWS

Boris?

Image result for boris johnson rugby tackle

Moments like this make people question, is Boris the man we want for Prime Minister? Credit: BBC NEWS

Rees-Mogg is a popular MP in his party, known for his witty speeches and use of the filibuster. However, due to his posh demeanour, would everyone approve?

No one can question Boris Johnson’s intellect, however, it is his colourful personality that creates comedic headlines, which some people feel a Prime Minister should not be associated with.

The Conservatives have been viewed as a “party for the rich”, with many critics highlighting the fact that the party fails to help the young and the less fortunate. Since the Conservatives have come into power, the government has been under fire for its approach to the economy, with many disagreeing with the party’s austerity measures. The economy has improved since the recession of 2008, however, the Tories have come under fire from those on the left saying that she does exploits those that are less well-off.

So, what does this mean for Great Britain?

Will we have another coalition, this time the Conservatives and the DUP?

Will another election be called?

Are we at a point of voter fatigue, with 4 general votes in the UK in just 3 years?

cameron-clegg.jpg

Will we see something like this in the near future? Credit: BBC NEWS

MINORITIES AND THE YOUTH LET THEIR VOICES BE HEARD

So how did we end up in this post-election chaos?

Brexit was one of the key issues during this election. Many people want a good trade deal with EU once Great Britain finally leaves.

Conservatives mainly wanted the EU law precedence over Parliament law to be abolished. On the other hand, Labour wanted to protect the rights of EU nationals, which would have given Labour more support during the election.

The youth was encouraged to vote in this election, because the implications of Brexit would affect them most in years to come. According to a YouGov survey the youth vote (18-24 year olds) was around 64% for Labour and only 21% for the Conservatives. The overall electoral turnout was 69%, which was a 2% increase from the 2015 election.

The reason for Corbyn’s increase in popularity, especially with the youth of today is his promises to improve public services and to scrap tuition fees for students. Some claim that this is unrealistic, because the money would come from taxing the rich people that have earned their money, as well as big businesses. However, this was a real opener for the Conservatives, because they now need to show that they represent not only the middle class, but the working class and the upcoming generation, the youths.

Recently, at the Glastonbury Festival, Corbyn came and addressed the youth to a positive reaction. He engaged well and people discussed on social media how a Prime Minister should be able to meet and greet regular people to show that they care about their citizens.

Image result for jeremy corbyn glastonbury

Jeremy Corbyn saw his party have a large youth vote. Has this always been the Conservatives weak spot? Do they fail to engage the younger generation? Credit: The Huffington Post

NATIONAL SECURITY MAY DECIDE MAY’S FATE

The United Kingdom is renowned for its prevention of attacks on home soil. Unfortunately, in the space of four months there have been four attacks, with two occurring in one month. This became a major issue during the election, because people were unsure which government could prevent any large-scale attack.

The London attack a few days before the election again raised questions as to whether May expand on her “Snooper’s Charter” if elected. Her critics have stated that this is a violation of privacy, a basic human right, however supporters have argued is “if you are not doing wrong, you have nothing to hide.”

Image result for theresa may in the house of commons

Should the UK have more surveillance online to ensure that we are safer? Credit: The Telegraph 

The Conservatives had a relatively low terrorist threat during the coalition, but Theresa May has come under increased criticism from the opposition, because of the reduction of police. The cuts of around 20,000 police officers gave Corbyn the argument that the attacks could have been prevented if fully staffed.

Terrorism could decrease substantially if a good negotiation for Brexit is agreed. Brexit could potentially mean immigration is going to be clamped down, making it harder for EU nationals to come to the country.

Despite Corbyn’s popularity with the youth, many did not want him in charge of the nation’s security, because of his past links to Hamas and the IRA, as well as his stance on nuclear weapons for the United Kingdom.

GRENFELL TOWER

On 14th June 2017, a fire was started on the 4th floor of a 24-storey high council flat. As of 28th June, the death toll was 80, with many others still missing and around 74 injured.

Despite Theresa May promising £5 million for the families that were affected by the tragedy and going to the area to visit those affected in hospital, people criticised May by calling her a “coward” and “murderer”. While it is natural to feel aggrieved in these situations, many thought it was inappropriate for people to abuse May in public.

Image result for grenfell protests

The Grenfell community demanded answers from Theresa May from her recent visit. Will an enquiry led by Sir Martin Moore-Bick be welcomed? Credit: The Independent

It is most likely that if this event took place before the election, May would have lost, not necessarily for her policies, but just due to the natural anger felt by those in Kensington.

These events will test May’s ability under pressure. Only time will tell, whether she can survive this latest political storm…

Powered by WordPress & Theme by Anders Norén